Will Chicago Get Cold Again This Season

Tim's Weather Takeaways: Chicago winter 2020-2021 forecast, Part ane

PublishedDec 1, 2021

My opinion of snow has radically changed from when I was a kid growing up in Schaumburg. I used to love information technology. The more the merrier. Not so much anymore. I don't accept an excuse for not getting to work. That ways I have driven in some of the worst weather imaginable. I've driven in three of the worst snowstorms Chicago has ever seen. I take also shoveled tons of snow and that is no exaggeration. Just enquire my back.

That is me in the picture above. I am in the middle, just in front of my two older brothers in their darker jackets. My youngest brother is in the foreground. I may have been the inspiration for Ralphie's brother Randy in "A Christmas Story". If I ever savage over, I might not get back up again.   This picture was taken right after the January 26-27 blizzard, the worst on record for Chicago.

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We would spend hours out in the snowfall and then come inside and strip off our moisture winter gear so our mother could throw everything in the dryer. Afterwards a cup of hot chocolate and a break, we would head dorsum out into the snow once more. Information technology was a blast.

I lived through the peak 5 worst snowstorms in Chicago's history. For 4 out of those five I was an developed that had to drive in the snow. And so snow is no longer fun for me in most aspects. Forecasting snow is another thing. It is probably the about heady thing I practice as a meteorologist. Forecasting individual storms is challenging. There are many factors that decide the amount of snowfall nosotros will get here. They include the path and speed of storm. We also accept to accept Lake Michigan into consideration. Will we get lake enhancement or non? This is jut the tip of the winter tempest forecast claiming iceberg.

Winter storm forecasting is hard just wintertime seasonal snowfall forecasting is nearly incommunicable. That is what I am going to try on the first day of meteorological winter.

Here is a list of Chicago's worst snowstorms on record:

ane.      23.0 inches on January 26-27, 1967

two.      21.6 inches on January 1-three, 1999

3. 21.2 inches on Jan 31-February 2, 2011

4.      twenty.3 inches on January 12-fourteen, 1979

5.      19.3 inches on Jan 31-Feb 2, 2015

half dozen.      19.two inches on March 25-26, 1930

7.      16.two inches on March 7-8, 1931

viii.      14.9 inches on January 30, 1939

9.      14.9 inches on January half dozen-7, 1918

x.    14.viii inches on Dec 17-19, 1929

It has been 10 years since a snowstorm has cracked the top ten. Will we accept a storm this year that will bump i of these off the list? I don't know merely that is not what I desire to practise in this post. Instead, I volition give a total snowfall forecast for the entire winter flavor from December through February.

The United States in non a meteorological island. What I mean is that weather events that occur in other places of the world have an impact here. This is the idea behind "teleconnections". Information technology refers to "a recurring and persistent, large-scale design of pressure and apportionment anomalies that spans vast geographical areas" that are many times linked to atmospheric condition patterns elsewhere.

The sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along and near the equator is ane example. The absence or presence of either a La Nina or El Nino has an affect on our weather here in Chicago and tin can requite usa a hint of what to expect this winter.

It so happens that we are now in a weak La Nina. The graph above shows the ENSO or El Nino Southern Oscillation forecast through this winter and across from several computer models. If the forecast line is beneath the 0.0° far plenty, it is expecting La Nina atmospheric condition. Knowing the bulk of models are expecting a weak to moderate La Nina this winter, I volition await dorsum at previous winters with similar conditions to get an idea of what to look for this one.

The graphic above shows average snowfall patterns during weak La Ninas between 1950 and 2009. Northern Illinois had near normal snowfall during these events. Just west and due north of us at that place was more than average snowfall in western Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

I also need to consider an "ensemble forecast" of winter atmospheric precipitation. An ensemble weather forecast is "a set of forecasts that present the range of futurity weather possibilities". Information technology could be one model that is run several times with the initial conditions tweaked a bit each time. It could besides be a combination of several different models. The graphic above is the NMME forecast of this winter'south precipitation. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is "an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC". It is forecasting in a higher place average precipitation for this wintertime. That precipitation could be either in the form of rain or snow and even everything in-betwixt.

The official winter atmospheric precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service calls for to a higher place average atmospheric precipitation here and across most of the Midwest. Observe how like the pattern is in the graphic immediately in a higher place and the NMME forecast graphic.

I've also considered other winter forecast sources. AccuWeather is forecasting 125% to 149% of normal snowfall here. The 1991-2020 average snowfall for the months of Dec, Jan and Feb combined is 29.6". That means they are forecasting between 37" to 44" of snow this winter.

WeatherBell is forecasting about 125% of normal snowfall. That means effectually 37" for Chicago.

Last but non least, the real wildcard this winter in terms of snowfall may exist Lake Michigan's h2o temperature. As of this writing the h2o temperature in the southern finish of the lake was notwithstanding well into the 40s in the middle of the lake. That is much warmer than average for this time of the year. When the weather condition blueprint favors a cold wind off the lake blowing in our direction, we could get generous amounts of lake effect snow. The greater the departure between the warm water temperature and the temperature of the cold air aloft, the greater the potential for lake effect snow. The question is only how often we volition be downwind of that common cold air this winter.

And then here goes nothing. Later conscientious consideration, a whorl of the die and a piffling prayer, I am going to forecast a range of 33" to 37" of snowfall this winter. That would be to a higher place the boilerplate of well-nigh 30".

Subsequently this calendar week I will take a shot at forecasting temperatures for this upcoming winter in Part ii of my winter forecast.

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Source: https://www.fox32chicago.com/weather/my-forecast-for-this-winter-part-1

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